I'll admit I haven't yet seen some of this year's big contenders in some categories, including The Danish Girl (up for Actor and Supporting Actress) and Creed (up for Supporting Actor). However, I'll give you my best and most honest predictions of what films you can expect to walk away with the gold on Oscar night, as well as throw in my personal preference so you know where I stand (that's where you'll see AJ's Ranking).
Best Picture
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Predicted Winner: The Revenant
This year is truly a toss-up between three big titles - Spotlight, The Revenant, and The Big Short. Spotlight took home Best Picture at the Critic's Choice Awards, Best Screenplay from the WGA and the BAFTAs, and Best Ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild. The Revenant swept Best Picture and Best Director at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes and won the 2016 DGA Award for Best Director. Finally, on top of its Best Adapted Screenplay awards from the WGA and BAFTAs, The Big Short won the prestigious PGA Award from the Producer's Guild of America (the PGA has predicted Best Picture at the Oscars for the past eight years).
What does that mean? It means we can write off Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, and Room for sure. Mad Max won Best Picture from several critic's outlets earlier this year, including the National Board of Review, but has lost considerable steam in awards season. Additionally, it's not the typical "Oscar movie."
After being dubbed as a comedy by the HFPA, The Martian took home a Golden Globe for Best Picture, but it is also unlikely to win big at the Oscars because it lacks the crucial Best Director nomination. Of the three contenders left, my money goes to The Revenant. Not only does it have the most nominations (12), it is arguably a more daring and powerful film in the eyes of the Academy than Spotlight and The Big Short despite these two having a more timely, relevant, and socio-politically charged story. Also, The Revenant has more major wins than the other two, and fan support for The Revenant is huge by association of getting Leo his long-awaited Oscar. Having said this, be sure to stay tuned until the last minute on Oscar night - there's no way to say for sure what film will be in that envelope. As for my preference, I love Spotlight, but I was blown away by the beauty of Brooklyn, and that's where my vote likely would have fallen.
AJ's Ranking
1. Brooklyn
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Room
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. The Martian
8. The Big Short
Should have been nominated: The Gift, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Director
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Predicted Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
This could easily go to George Miller for his masterful handling of the Mad Max fourquel. Lenny Abrahamson deserves major props for bringing out such genuine performances in a confined space from Brie Larson and the young Jacob Tremblay in Room, but the film doesn't have the star power to stand out in the Best Director category. Adam McKay and Tom McCarthy have a shot for The Big Short and Spotlight, respectively, should the Academy rally behind them for Best Picture. But with a DGA, a Golden Globe, and a BAFTA under his belt this year, Iñárritu may just pull of the stunning accomplishment of consecutive Best Director Oscars. His gripping work on The Revenant and relentless pursuit of an authentic approach to the film is hard to ignore. Having said that, personal preference goes to Miller.
AJ's Ranking
1. Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Iñárritu, The Revenant
3. Abrahamson, Room
4. McCarthy, Spotlight
5. McKay, The Big Short
Should have been nominated: Edgerton, The Gift; Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens; Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Best Actor
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Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revevant
As hilarious as it would be to see the world's reaction if Leo doesn't win, The Academy can't take a chance by disappointing millions of viewers anxious to see Leonardo DiCaprio finally win an Academy Award for acting. He's got this in the bag. The only disappointment about his expected win is that it's in such a weak pool of actors compared to previous ceremonies. Not enough people saw Bryan Cranston in Trumbo or Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl to secure them wins, Matt Damon didn't have enough character interaction in The Martian, and Michael Fassbender didn't maintain the necessary awards season presence to be considered for the win. So, yeah - Leonardo DiCaprio is essentially an Oscar winner.
AJ's Ranking
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Matt Damon, The Martian
Also nominated: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo and Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Should have been nominated: Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Best Actress
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Predicted Winner: Brie Larson, Room
After being overlooked for her star-making turn in 2013's Short Term 12, Brie Larson has made her way to The Academy's heart for a sincere and moving performance in Room. She's unlikely to see a loss this year, despite being up against veteran Oscar favorites Jennifer Lawrence for Joy and Cate Blanchett for Carol. As strong as Larson's performance was this year, I'm disappointed Saoirse Ronan isn't getting the love she deserves for her role in Brooklyn. It'd be a nice surprise to see her luck change on Oscar night, although I do believe Larson did give a better performance. (Also, Cate Blanchett deserves to be a supporting actress candidate since she had far less screen time than her co-star Rooney Mara).
AJ's Ranking
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
Also nominated: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy and Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Should have been nominated: Emily Blunt, Sicario; Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Supporting Actor
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Predicted Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
While I haven't seen Creed, pundits have stated Stallone's expected win will serve more as a career tribute than a recognition of the year's best supporting male performance. Mark Ruffalo was good - not great - in Spotlight, and Christian Bale was also good, but didn't get enough chances to show character development or range in The Big Short. Mark Rylance was fine in Bridge of Spies, but was not the best of this bunch. This leads me to Mr. Tom Hardy, one of today's most talented and versatile actors. In an ideal world, his disturbingly captivating performance in The Revenant would win him the Oscar. Since nothing is set in stone (Stallone wasn't even nominated at the BAFTAs or SAGs, after all), Hardy could come from nowhere and find unexpected success (much like his character's foe in The Revenant).
AJ's Ranking
1. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Also nominated: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should have been nominated: If it were up to me, the entire list would be scrapped - with the exception of Hardy - to incorporate Joel Edgerton for The Gift, Jason Mitchell for Straight Outta Compton, Benicio Del Toro for Sicario, and either Tim Roth, Walton Goggins, or Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight.
Best Supporting Actress
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Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Truly a tough one here. While I haven't seen The Danish Girl, I'm basing my decision off of Vikander's wins from the SAGs and the Critic's Choice. Kate Winslet won a Golden Globe and a BAFTA for Steve Jobs, but she wasn't up against Vikander in the category. Because this category is a bit of a mess, Rooney Mara (Carol) or Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight) could sneak in for a surprise win. Unfortunately, this puts Rachel McAdams out of the running, even though she'd have my vote for her fearless performance in Spotlight.
AJ's Ranking
1. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Also nominated: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Spotlight's only guaranteed win on Oscar night is for its screenplay - and it will be well deserved. Inside Out was not Pixar's best, Straight Outta Compton and Ex Machina had a few inexcusable imperfections, and Bridge of Spies just isn't as original or emotional as Spotlight.
AJ's Ranking
1. Spotlight
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Straight Outta Compton
4. Ex Machina
5. Inside Out
Should have been nominated: The Hateful Eight, The Gift
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Here we have a much tighter race than we see in the original screenplay category. My vote goes to Brooklyn for its wonderful adaptation, but it's believed the Academy will side with the stock traders and hand the award to The Big Short for its honorably comedic take on America's recent housing tragedy. Carol had a nice screenplay but faced some problems in its execution, and The Martian was a bit choppy between character stories to be named the best screenplay of the year. Room is a fantastic screenplay, but its win doesn't make a statement the way a win for The Big Short would. This is disappointing, because The Big Short has a few problems in its own execution that I feel are being unjustly overlooked.
Also, make a note that The Revenant isn't nominated here, which could be the fly in the ointment that could lead to another movie winning Best Picture.
AJ's Ranking
1. Brooklyn
2. Room
3. Carol
4. The Martian
5. The Big Short
Should have been nominated: Steve Jobs, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
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And here are the rest of your 2016 Oscar winners, followed by AJ's Pick (AP) in parentheses:
Best Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road (AP: Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road (AP: Spotlight)
Best Costume Design: Cinderella (AP: Mad Max: Fury Road)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road (AP: Mad Max: Fury Road)
Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road (AP: Mad Max: Fury Road)
Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road (AP: Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Best Cinematography: The Revenant (AP: The Revenant)
Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road (AP: Mad Max: Fury Road)
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight (AP: Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Tallied Predictions:
Mad Max: Fury Road: 6
The Revenant: 4
The Big Short: 1
Creed: 1
Cinderella: 1
The Danish Girl: 1
The Hateful Eight: 1
Room: 1
Spotlight: 1
See also: 2016 Oscars - Snubs and Surprises
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