2014 Oscar Predictions

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It's that time of year again! In one week, the Academy will be handing out their prestigious awards for excellence in moviemaking. As usual, they don't always agree with the movie going public. So I'm going to discuss a bit about this year's nominees, the predicted winners, who my favorites are to win each award, and who I think should have been on the ballot.

Best Picture

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Gravity may pull through with a surprising win, but 12 Years a Slave has held its front-runner position for months and will most likely be in the envelope on Oscar night. Nebraska, Her and Philomena are the only ones I can say have no real chance. Nebraska and Dallas Buyers Club are the most disappointing entries on this Best Picture list.

AJ's Rankings

1. Gravity
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Philomena
5. Captain Phillips
6. American Hustle
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Nebraska

Should have been nominated: Mud, August: Osage County, Don Jon, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Way Way Back, Blue Jasmine

Best Director

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Cuaron has been sweeping the Director's awards, as it's apparently excusable to snub Gravity for Best Picture if you give it Best Director. I'm happy both 12 Years and Gravity have been recognized, but I feel like the awards aren't being split the right way. Gravity is the reason why we go to the movies, but McQueen's tender direction of the epic slave story should get him the Oscar. Having said that, Gravity deserves to win Best Picture.

AJ's Rankings

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. David O. Russell, American Hustle
5. Alexander Payne, Nebraska

Should have been nominated: Jeff Nichols, Mud, John Wells, August: Osage County, Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor
 
Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

McConaughey gave it his all, and his performance was definitely deserving of a nomination. But Chiwetel Ejiofor's performance as the enslaved Solomon deserves the gold. Part of my reasoning for thinking that might be because I didn't love Dallas Buyers Club, and my opinion for this category might've been different had it been better.

AJ's Rankings

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle

Should have been nominated: Tye Sheridan, Mud, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Don Jon, Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewen Davis, Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips, Hugh Jackman, Prisoners, Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Best Actress
 
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

For the second year in a row, the Best Actress category is packed with talent. If I remember correctly, the last time there was an Oscar category with 4 winners against 1 loser was when Adrien Brody won for The Pianist. If history repeats itself, maybe Amy Adams will pull out a surprising win. If not her, maybe Judi Dench can get some recognition for her memorably sweet performance as Philomena Lee. Blanchett is brilliant as Jasmine, but so much so that she deserves to win every acting award this year? Not in my eyes. But in all honesty, all of these ladies are very deserving of this Oscar.

AJ's Rankings:

1. Judi Dench, Philomena
2. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
3. Amy Adams, American Hustle
4. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Leto absolutely deserves this Oscar; all of his competitors wither in comparison.

AJ's Rankings

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Should have been nominated: Matthew McConaughey, Mud, George Clooney, Gravity, Sam Rockwell, The Way Way Back, Chris Cooper, August: Osage County, Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

I know what you're thinking. How can Jennifer beat Lupita?! While I marginally think Lupita should win this year, Jennifer Lawrence won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. Usually when that happens, that person goes on to win the Oscar. So my prediction is for JLaw, though Lupita may very well emerge victorious. Count everyone else in the category out. Also, why is Sally Hawkins here?

AJ's Rankings

1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
4. June Squibb, Nebraska
5. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Should have been nominated: Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Chloe Grace Moretz, Kick-Ass 2, Julianne Moore, Carrie, Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewen Davis or The Great Gatsby, Allison Janney, The Way Way Back, Amy Adams, Her, Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave, Jena Malone, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Spike Jonze, Her

Jonze's unique comedy-drama has won critics over and has likely done the same for the Academy. Russell's American Hustle might edge him out but, while possible, I doubt it.

AJ's Rankings

1. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
2. Spike Jonze, Her
3. David O. Russell & Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle
4. Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
5. Bob Nelson, Nebraska

Should have been nominated: Jeff Nichols, Mud, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Don Jon, Jim Rash & Nat Faxon,, The Way Way Back, Aaron Guzikowshi, Prisoners, Richard Curtis, About Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

As great as 12 Years a Slave was, one of the reasons it came in 3rd on my Top 10 list instead of 1st or 2nd is because its screenplay was seriously flawed in some aspects (layout of time, too short, etc.). This winner isn't set in stone, and it wouldn't shock me if Philomena or Wolf won.

AJ's Rankings:

1. Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope, Philomena
2. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
3. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
4. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Also nominated: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawk, Before Midnight

Should have been nominated: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County, Simon Beaufoy & Michael deBruyn, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

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Best Animated Feature

Predicted Winner: Frozen
AJ's Pick: Frozen
Should have been nominated: Epic, Monsters University

Best Original Score

Predicted Winner: Gravity
AJ's Pick: Gravity
Should have been nominated: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Mud, Epic, Man of Steel

Best Original Song

Predicted Winner: Let It Go, Frozen
AJ's Pick: Let It Go, Frozen
Should have been nominated: For the First Time in Forever, Frozen, Atlas, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Young and Beautiful, The Great Gatsby

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Winner: Gravity
AJ's Pick: Gravity
Should have been nominated: Star Trek Into Darkness, Pacific Rim, Rush

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Winner: Gravity
AJ's Pick: Gravity
Should have been nominated: 12 Years a Slave, Rush

Best Production Design

Predicted Winner: The Great Gatsby
AJ's Pick: 12 Years a Slave
Should have been nominated: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Best Cinematography

Predicted Winner: Gravity
AJ's Pick: Gravity
Should have been nominated: Mud, 12 Years a Slave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Winner: Dallas Buyers Club
AJ's Pick: Bad Grandpa
Should have been nominated: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Evil Dead

Best Costume Design

Predicted Winner: American Hustle
AJ's Pick: 12 Years a Slave
Should have been nominated: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Ender's Game, Man of Steel

Best Film Editing

Predicted Winner: Gravity
AJ's Pick: Captain Phillips

 

Should have been nominated: Mud, August: Osage County, The Wolf of Wall Street, Lone Survivor

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: Gravity
AJ's Pick: Gravity
Should have been nominated: Ender's Game, Pacific Rim

Tallied Predictions:

Gravity: 7
Dallas Buyers Club: 3
American Hustle: 2
Frozen: 2
12 Years a Slave: 2
Her: 1
Blue Jasmine: 1
The Great Gatsby: 1

Number of (extra) nominations these movies should have gotten:

Mud: 8
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire: 8
August: Osage County: 5
The Way Way Back: 4
Don Jon: 3
Her: 3
The Great Gatsby: 3
12 Years a Slave: 3
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smuag: 3