2015 Oscar Predictions

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Another cinematic year has passed, and on Sunday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be handing out their coveted Oscars for achievements in producing, directing, writing, technical construction, music, and more. While the Academy is expected to follow the previous awards circuits, there are always a few unexpected winners on Oscar night. So I'll be taking a crack at who I think the winners will be in each of the major categories, who I think should win, and who was somehow ignored for their efforts.

Best Picture

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Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Birdman's Best Picture momentum has picked up recently following wins at the Director's, Producer's, and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Since the Academy consists of industry professionals, and not critics, there's a possibility Birdman could edge out over Boyhood. Yet I think this is unlikely - Boyhood will be remembered and admired for far longer than Birdman. While Birdman was inventive and fun, Boyhood was even more inventive and offered a mesmerizing blend of narrative and realism. Birdman is an achievement, but Boyhood should ultimately prove victorious on Oscar night. As for the other nominees, Selma and Whiplash will probably be discounted, but shouldn't be in my eyes. American Sniper could make a surprise showing, but given its lack of a Best Director nomination, it's not too likely. Grand Budapest could be a potential spoiler, but you should probably just expect it to pick up wins in the artistic categories.

AJ's Rankings

1. Boyhood
2. Selma
3. Whiplash
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Birdman
6. American Sniper
7. The Imitation Game
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should have been nominated: Into the Woods, Noah, The Fault in Our Stars, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Fun Fact: This is the first year since I've started blogging that I've given all the best picture nominees positive ratings, and if any of my top 5 on that list won, I wouldn't be too mad.

Best Director

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Predicted Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Another toss-up between Boyhood's Linklater and Birdman's Iñárritu. Both were risk-takers and brilliantly realized the strong visions for their films. Again, I'd give the edge to Boyhood here. Linklater effortlessly captured the trials of growing up, and gave an unfathomable amount of dedication to this film's success. It paid off, and I think the Academy will reward him for his work.

AJ's Rankings

1. Linklater, Boyhood
2. Iñárritu, Birdman
3. Miller, Foxcatcher
4. Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Should have been nominated: Ava DuVernay, Selma; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Rob Marshall, Into the Woods; Damien Chazelle, Whiplash; Peter Jackson, The Hobbit; Dave Green, Earth to Echo

Best Actor

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Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman

The biggest race of the night will be between Birdman's Keaton and The Theory of Everything's Eddie Redmayne. It's a showdown of comedy and drama, of a fresh face and a classic Hollywood comeback. Both gave equally impressive performances, and personally, I'm still trying to decide who I think is the better choice to win. Redmayne gave a painstaking performance as the renowned physicist, while Keaton immersed himself into becoming Riggan. It's not an easy call, but I think the Academy will veer more towards the traditional and conservative choice by giving Keaton the gold. But with SAG and BAFTA wins under his belt, Redmayne may be walking on that stage on Sunday. It's anybody's guess. Potential spoilers could be Cumberbatch and Cooper, especially if the votes between Redmayne and Keaton draw to a deadlock.

AJ's Rankings

1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Should have been nominated: Ansel Elgort, The Fault in Our Stars; Ben Affleck, Gone Girl

Best Actress

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Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Well, this is embarrassing. Since Still Alice and Two Days, One Night haven't been given a wide release yet and I have not seen Wild, I can only offer commentary on two of the nominees. Felicity Jones seems a bit out of place here for The Theory of Everything, so I'd give my vote to Rosamund for Gone Girl. However, know that Moore is a lock to win this Oscar, and in my opinion, a win for her is long overdue.

Should have been nominated: Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

Best Supporting Actor

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Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Okay, time for a tiny rant. Simmons was scarily good in Whiplash, yet I think the reason he's winning so many awards as opposed to just being nominated is because no one expected he could pull off such a performance. As the treacherous Terrence Fletcher, Simmons gave one of the best performances of the year, but in my eyes, he didn't upstage Edward Norton in Birdman. And think of it this way, when we look back twenty years from now, and for some reason Edward Norton - who gave us truly impeccable performances in movies like Primal Fear and American History X - still doesn't have an Oscar, won't we regret this time when we had a chance to give him one when he really deserves it? On another note, if neither Simmons or Norton were nominated this year, I'd be pulling for Ethan Hawke for bringing such an intriguing character transition to the screen so well as Mason Sr. in Boyhood.

AJ's Rankings

1. Edward Norton, Birdman
2. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Also nominated: Robert Duvall, The Judge

Should have been nominated: Marton Csokas, The Equalizer; Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl

Best Supporting Actress 

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Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

I swear to God, if Arquette opens up a packet of three or four pages of 8 1/2 x 11 paper and asks the presenter to hold onto her Oscar while she unpreparedly reads from them, I may just fly to L.A. and take the trophy from her. Incidentals aside, Arquette played the role of Olivia reasonably well, though I'm thoroughly befuddled as to why she's winning every supporting actress award under the sun this year. Tilda Swinton should have been in the category, and frankly, should have won it. Otherwise, this year's supporting actress field is incredibly weak.

AJ's Rankings

1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Keira Knightly, The Imitation Game
Also nominated: Laura Dern, Wild

Should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer; Sienna Miller, American Sniper

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Iñárritu & Co., Birdman

Birdman's originality should win it at least one Oscar, and that'll likely be for this category. The biggest snub here is for Paul Webb's screenplay for Selma. This could, however, be the Academy's chance to give Anderson's Grand Budapest an Oscar for a major category.

AJ's Rankings

1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Iñárritu & Co., Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Also nominated: Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Should have been nominated: Paul Webb, Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything

This is a tough one, as no real frontrunner has been named in this category. Because of that, I'll follow suit with the BAFTAs and predict The Theory of Everything, which also happens to be my choice for the win. Count no one out in this category: The Imitation Game fared much better over here than it did in its home nation of England, Whiplash could win to incentivize young filmmakers, and no one's quite sure what to expect from American Sniper.

AJ's Rankings

1. Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
2. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash (even though it's an original screenplay)
3. Jason Hall, American Sniper
4. Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Also nominated Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

Should have been nominated: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl; Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Fault in our Stars; Darren Aronofsky & Ari Handel, Noah
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And here are the rest of your 2015 Oscar winners, followed by AJ's Pick (AP) in parentheses:

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar (AP: Interstellar)
Best Film Editing: Boyhood (AP: Boyhood)
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (AP: Into the Woods)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy (AP: Guardians of the Galaxy)
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash (AP: Whiplash)
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper (AP: The Hobbit)
Best Cinematography: Birdman (AP: Birdman)
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (AP: The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything (AP: Interstellar)
Best Original Song: "Glory," from Selma (AP: "Glory")

Tallied Predictions:

Boyhood: 4
Birdman: 3
The Grand Budapest Hotel: 2
Whiplash: 2
The Theory of Everything: 2
American Sniper: 1
Interstellar: 1
Still Alice: 1
Selma: 1
Guardians of the Galaxy: 1

See also: 2015 Oscars - Snubs and Surprises, AJ's Top 10 of 2014

Fifty Shades of Grey

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Alright, let's get this over with.

I'd just like to start by saying that Fifty Shades of Grey is exactly what you are expecting it to be. If you think you'll love it, you will. If you think it's going to be ridiculously awful, it will be. If you think it portrays BDSM in an abusive light, that's probably the way you'll see Anastasia and Christian's actions. So if that's sufficient enough for you, no need to read on. I know I'm not going to sway those with strong predetermined opinions one way or the other.

But for those of you curious about the film, allow me to enlighten you. To all who think that Fifty Shades of Grey is just the adaptation of that "classy porn" novel, there's actually a plot. Washington State senior Anastasia "Ana" Steele is asked by her roommate, fellow senior and Journalism major Kate, to interview the man giving their school's commencement address. The man, as you probably guessed, is Christian Grey - 27-year-old self-made millionaire. He prides himself on being a people person, ironically.

After developing a mutual attraction, the two enter into a partnership (not a relationship), complete with a contract, terms, and everything. Christian promises to devote himself completely to Anastasia if she willingly surrenders herself to him as his submissive. With some reservation, Ana agrees to be Christian's new plaything, but gets increasingly frustrated when his attention and affection to her outside the bedroom becomes episodic.

In the lead roles are Dakota Johnson as Ana and Jamie Dornan as Christian. As Christian, Dornan is just what the character demands of him. The character of Christian Grey is a walking penis, and all attempts to develop him beyond that role are thwarted by the laughable dialogue given to Dornan, who makes no effort to make the part believable. Twice, Ana asks Christian what his reasoning is behind his sadistic behavior. Both times, his response is "because that's who I am."

Ana, on the other hand, is a rather interesting character. She's stronger and smarter than you may think, and Johnson brings about a clever performance that is able to convey Ana as awkward, headstrong, and complex. In one of the movie's better scenes, she calls a formal business meeting with Christian to discuss the terms of their arrangement, turning the tables by controlling him in his professional setting. She's aware of the power she has over Christian, even though in his eyes, she's his object. She knows when to speak up, when to say when, but doesn't realize why Christian has had 15 other girls in her role until the end of the film, which comes about and concludes in the most frustrating of ways.

Again, my rating is probably of no use to those of you who already have your mind made up about the film. There's a good chance you already know if you're going to see Fifty Shades or not (if you haven't already), so at this point, I'm just trying to make sense of this to myself. Because even though the film is ridiculously scripted, runs too long, and contains a score that was probably ripped off from a 1970s X-rated videotape (save for the lead up to a remix of Beyoncé's "Crazy in Love"), there's a consistent pace and signs of good direction. The first half hour of the film, completely devoid of sex, had me raising my expectations. Though as it went on, those expectations were not met. For me, at least, Fifty Shades of Grey wasn't the train wreck I was expecting, but it wasn't that good either. When it comes to iffy romance movies, I've had better.

Rating: 2/5

Kingsman: The Secret Service

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Kingsman was supposed to be a fun movie. Don't get me wrong, parts of it were fun, but based on the trailers and on Matthew Vaughn's previous film Kick-Ass, I expected it to be consistently and ridiculously fun throughout while still maintaining a certain level of quality. With Vaughn serving as director/writer/producer, a score conducted by Henry Jackman, and top-billed actors like Colin Firth, Michael Caine, and Samuel L. Jackson, I don't think this expectation was entirely unjustified.

Yet despite its more enjoyable moments, the charm of its main character, and sleek camerawork, Kingsman: The Secret Service wasn't always as fun as the filmmakers had intended. Parts of it were rather negative, actually. In one scene, a hypnotized crowd in a church assembly begin slaughtering one another. Sure, the expert cinematography follows Colin Firth's character quite impressively, but they follow him massacring dozens of innocent people by means of gun, fist, knife, and various pieces of the building - and it's not until after he kills all these people that we realize he wasn't doing these acts intentionally. Yet another scene follows the villain's henchmen and a slew of world leaders having their heads blown off in a flashy, fireworks-esque display as glorious music plays. Never mind the fact that all the deceased probably had jobs, families, and loved ones - just as long as the scene looks cool. Maybe we didn't care as much because the churchgoers played a strong resemblance to Westboro Baptist Church, so I guess that makes it okay.

Kingsman is the story of a twenty-something Londoner named Eggsy (Yes, Eggsy). After his father's death in the line of undercover duty, Eggsy grows up with a distant mother and abusive step-father to become a delinquent. He's contacted by Harry Hart (Colin Firth), his late father's former colleague, and is told he would make a good addition to the team of the Kingsman - a group of British spies with a wide array of physical skill and intellect. As Eggsy trains for the job, the movie's villain Valentine (Samuel L. Jackson) sets up an operation to basically press the restart button for Earth's population. 

Which brings me to a vital question I have for the filmmakers - what in the world were they thinking with their execution of Jackson's character? Talk about a bad performance. In a feeble attempt to add more humor to the film, Valentine's character says all his words with a terribly-employed lisp, which proved to be more of a distraction than a riot. What's so frustrating is that we all know Jackson can do better (Pulp Fiction? A Time to Kill? Django Unchained? The man's a legend.). We also see another serious sin here - the inclusion of Michael Caine. In a clear move to add credibility to the film, Caine's inclusion was a poorly-concieved way to add a familiar face for however brief a time.

What was even more disappointing is that in the film's final act, it really started to sway me toward a recommendation. I started feeling a similar level of amusement that I felt watching Kick-Ass. Unfortunately, it was never to the point where I would say that Kingsman a must see. The film suffers from an overlong start and training period which are only kept afloat by sporadic action sequences, the confident, star-making presence of Taron Egerton in the role of Eggsy, and the expected benefits of having Colin Firth involved. Towards the end, the movie had those fun moments I was hoping for, but I wouldn't say that it's a fully "fun" movie - even though that's what it wanted to be.

Rating: 2.5/5