2015 Oscar Predictions

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Another cinematic year has passed, and on Sunday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be handing out their coveted Oscars for achievements in producing, directing, writing, technical construction, music, and more. While the Academy is expected to follow the previous awards circuits, there are always a few unexpected winners on Oscar night. So I'll be taking a crack at who I think the winners will be in each of the major categories, who I think should win, and who was somehow ignored for their efforts.

Best Picture

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Predicted Winner: Boyhood

Birdman's Best Picture momentum has picked up recently following wins at the Director's, Producer's, and Screen Actors Guild Awards. Since the Academy consists of industry professionals, and not critics, there's a possibility Birdman could edge out over Boyhood. Yet I think this is unlikely - Boyhood will be remembered and admired for far longer than Birdman. While Birdman was inventive and fun, Boyhood was even more inventive and offered a mesmerizing blend of narrative and realism. Birdman is an achievement, but Boyhood should ultimately prove victorious on Oscar night. As for the other nominees, Selma and Whiplash will probably be discounted, but shouldn't be in my eyes. American Sniper could make a surprise showing, but given its lack of a Best Director nomination, it's not too likely. Grand Budapest could be a potential spoiler, but you should probably just expect it to pick up wins in the artistic categories.

AJ's Rankings

1. Boyhood
2. Selma
3. Whiplash
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Birdman
6. American Sniper
7. The Imitation Game
8. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should have been nominated: Into the Woods, Noah, The Fault in Our Stars, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Fun Fact: This is the first year since I've started blogging that I've given all the best picture nominees positive ratings, and if any of my top 5 on that list won, I wouldn't be too mad.

Best Director

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Predicted Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Another toss-up between Boyhood's Linklater and Birdman's Iñárritu. Both were risk-takers and brilliantly realized the strong visions for their films. Again, I'd give the edge to Boyhood here. Linklater effortlessly captured the trials of growing up, and gave an unfathomable amount of dedication to this film's success. It paid off, and I think the Academy will reward him for his work.

AJ's Rankings

1. Linklater, Boyhood
2. Iñárritu, Birdman
3. Miller, Foxcatcher
4. Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Should have been nominated: Ava DuVernay, Selma; James Marsh, The Theory of Everything; Rob Marshall, Into the Woods; Damien Chazelle, Whiplash; Peter Jackson, The Hobbit; Dave Green, Earth to Echo

Best Actor

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Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman

The biggest race of the night will be between Birdman's Keaton and The Theory of Everything's Eddie Redmayne. It's a showdown of comedy and drama, of a fresh face and a classic Hollywood comeback. Both gave equally impressive performances, and personally, I'm still trying to decide who I think is the better choice to win. Redmayne gave a painstaking performance as the renowned physicist, while Keaton immersed himself into becoming Riggan. It's not an easy call, but I think the Academy will veer more towards the traditional and conservative choice by giving Keaton the gold. But with SAG and BAFTA wins under his belt, Redmayne may be walking on that stage on Sunday. It's anybody's guess. Potential spoilers could be Cumberbatch and Cooper, especially if the votes between Redmayne and Keaton draw to a deadlock.

AJ's Rankings

1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Should have been nominated: Ansel Elgort, The Fault in Our Stars; Ben Affleck, Gone Girl

Best Actress

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Predicted Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Well, this is embarrassing. Since Still Alice and Two Days, One Night haven't been given a wide release yet and I have not seen Wild, I can only offer commentary on two of the nominees. Felicity Jones seems a bit out of place here for The Theory of Everything, so I'd give my vote to Rosamund for Gone Girl. However, know that Moore is a lock to win this Oscar, and in my opinion, a win for her is long overdue.

Should have been nominated: Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

Best Supporting Actor

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Predicted Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Okay, time for a tiny rant. Simmons was scarily good in Whiplash, yet I think the reason he's winning so many awards as opposed to just being nominated is because no one expected he could pull off such a performance. As the treacherous Terrence Fletcher, Simmons gave one of the best performances of the year, but in my eyes, he didn't upstage Edward Norton in Birdman. And think of it this way, when we look back twenty years from now, and for some reason Edward Norton - who gave us truly impeccable performances in movies like Primal Fear and American History X - still doesn't have an Oscar, won't we regret this time when we had a chance to give him one when he really deserves it? On another note, if neither Simmons or Norton were nominated this year, I'd be pulling for Ethan Hawke for bringing such an intriguing character transition to the screen so well as Mason Sr. in Boyhood.

AJ's Rankings

1. Edward Norton, Birdman
2. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Also nominated: Robert Duvall, The Judge

Should have been nominated: Marton Csokas, The Equalizer; Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl

Best Supporting Actress 

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Predicted Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

I swear to God, if Arquette opens up a packet of three or four pages of 8 1/2 x 11 paper and asks the presenter to hold onto her Oscar while she unpreparedly reads from them, I may just fly to L.A. and take the trophy from her. Incidentals aside, Arquette played the role of Olivia reasonably well, though I'm thoroughly befuddled as to why she's winning every supporting actress award under the sun this year. Tilda Swinton should have been in the category, and frankly, should have won it. Otherwise, this year's supporting actress field is incredibly weak.

AJ's Rankings

1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
3. Emma Stone, Birdman
4. Keira Knightly, The Imitation Game
Also nominated: Laura Dern, Wild

Should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer; Sienna Miller, American Sniper

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Iñárritu & Co., Birdman

Birdman's originality should win it at least one Oscar, and that'll likely be for this category. The biggest snub here is for Paul Webb's screenplay for Selma. This could, however, be the Academy's chance to give Anderson's Grand Budapest an Oscar for a major category.

AJ's Rankings

1. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2. Iñárritu & Co., Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Also nominated: Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Should have been nominated: Paul Webb, Selma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Winner: Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything

This is a tough one, as no real frontrunner has been named in this category. Because of that, I'll follow suit with the BAFTAs and predict The Theory of Everything, which also happens to be my choice for the win. Count no one out in this category: The Imitation Game fared much better over here than it did in its home nation of England, Whiplash could win to incentivize young filmmakers, and no one's quite sure what to expect from American Sniper.

AJ's Rankings

1. Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
2. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash (even though it's an original screenplay)
3. Jason Hall, American Sniper
4. Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Also nominated Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

Should have been nominated: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl; Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Fault in our Stars; Darren Aronofsky & Ari Handel, Noah
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And here are the rest of your 2015 Oscar winners, followed by AJ's Pick (AP) in parentheses:

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar (AP: Interstellar)
Best Film Editing: Boyhood (AP: Boyhood)
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (AP: Into the Woods)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy (AP: Guardians of the Galaxy)
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash (AP: Whiplash)
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper (AP: The Hobbit)
Best Cinematography: Birdman (AP: Birdman)
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel (AP: The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything (AP: Interstellar)
Best Original Song: "Glory," from Selma (AP: "Glory")

Tallied Predictions:

Boyhood: 4
Birdman: 3
The Grand Budapest Hotel: 2
Whiplash: 2
The Theory of Everything: 2
American Sniper: 1
Interstellar: 1
Still Alice: 1
Selma: 1
Guardians of the Galaxy: 1

See also: 2015 Oscars - Snubs and Surprises, AJ's Top 10 of 2014